L'Effet Bouchard : les laïcistes reculent, amères, pour l'instant

Bouchard has at least bought liberals, in the philosophical sense, some time, a few weeks or months, until Beaudoin releases the PQ's proposed "Charte de laïcité". Of course, like any decent observer, I realised right away that his intervention would help the PQ down the line, as Marois could appeal to the bigots, who think of her as a big-city bourgeoise snob, by saying "look, even Bouchard thinks I'm radical". And given how much the PQ core hates Bouchard, the 20% of QC's population who are militant separatist bigots, this also serves her well internally (same article, last sentence). The "more respectable" bigots, like Boileau, Martineau & Lisée, are of course very bitter about being reprimanded and pushed back. They know Bouchard's statements, if played well by Charest, could prove turning point against their confused laïciste totalitarian crusade (confused because they propose to save the liberal village by destroying it, so to speak; they would respond that that is exactly what coherent liberalism is doing to QC society, ie. French Canadian QC society, and so the question comes down one's interpretation of French QC's status - Bouchard is confident, optimistic & outward-looking, the laïcistes are insecure, pessimistic & inward-looking = funny how we become our adversaries/fathers - all the Quiet Revolutionaries, once in power, ended up a lot more duplessiste than they realised, and now Bouchard has ended up playing PET's role.)

As more than one commentator pointed out, Bouchard message about getting QC moving is aimed as much at Charest as anyone, actually, and while Bouchard has bought Charest some time, Charest's still got to get going himself, and use it. He needs to beat the PQ, ADQ & assorted bigots to the punch and do what Bourassa did in these situations, present a plan (follow-up on Bouchard-Taylor) that seems to respond to insecurities but which doesn't in fact restrict liberalism and rights (as much) as its title might suggest. Do the kind of thing that drove Lisée crazy enough to write two huge boring books. Get in there quick, flashy title, big talk, flashy legislation, but actually respects human rights and liberal principles. In this way, Charest can profit from current turmoil, use Bouchard declaration for apparent win, satisfy the insecure (who don't really know what they're talking about, just want to make sure "we" stay on top and "they" don't "push us around").

As Auger notes, there's a real difference of opinion between PQ & Bloc on these questions, which they paper over. The Bloc came in for a lot of criticism from PQ for not going harder on "QC identity" (ie. bigotry), and only came up with some ADQ-PQ pleasing rhetoric just before last election. They really didn't want to, and didn't feel good about it. They know it's BS, and what the laïcistes are pushing toward would contradict the Charters, plural. And of course, Duceppe has his own reasons for not being enamoured of Marois & PQ insiders. And was Bouchard's chosen successor. One of the best favours the PQ ever gave federalists, and lord knows they've given us many, was freezing Duceppe out of PQ leadership race. He was and is a much more effective and dangerous separatist leader, much more appealing to the swing voters the PQ needs, and has come closer to perfecting the right rhetoric for separatists than anyone else "Canada is great, all for pluralism and liberalism, just better for QC on its own". Of course, given the aforementioned psychoses of PQ hardcore, and Duceppe's trotskyite impatience with their BS, it would have been a brutal relationship. But in the abstract, he was/is the right man for the job. Luckily, PQ froze him out, and next by next leadership race he'll be too old. And no other well-known impressive separatist leader out there. You wouldn't follow a neophyte out of Egypt, would you? Drainville's talented, but he's never run anything. By the time he gets his chance, well, we'll see.

So Charest can introduce legislation, or white paper, or "rule-codification", that seems really flashy, but actually respects rights and liberalism, play on divisions within separatists, work Bouchard angle, and it will seem good, legitimate and sufficient, in public mind. Get if off the table, stay on management questions, cut feet from under Beaudoin & bigots, and head into summer break secure. By next Fall, however much blood media wants from Charest, going to be difficult to stir things up again, and Charest can always go "we did X! We have processes to examine these questions. You don't want to be acting all bigoted and extremist do you?". Kill it and move on.

But Charest has to get going. And that was also part of Bouchard message. Because the more time we waste on this BS, the less we're dealing with real problems. And the more they worsen, the more insecure people feel, and the more the BS will return.