Supremacy of Parliament: An Election If Necessary

Very very few issues can unite the Opposition in righteous fury, motivate all politically-conscious Canadian democrats, and cut across all normal lines of division, pushing Con numbers down, Libs & all Opposition up, and providing a new army of the otherwise apartisan to work as election volunteers, to seal the deal. Democracy, and its necessary corollary, Parliamentary Supremacy, is one, perhaps the only one. We know this because we have seen it, post-prorogation. We have been exceedingly indulgent of the Cons' Illegitimacy. Knowing the Cons' internal pressures, we understood the PMO had finally been forced to come to its senses, esp. given how fair was the understanding between parties. But even now, the Cons' negotiating team is trying to subvert the process, Parliament, Democracy. Enough. Keep your word and submit to Parliament, or be defeated.

I was told I was naive to think that the Cons would actually respect the process. But I had my reasons, as the Cons are not monolithic, most are for fair-play, democracy and respect for institutions, that's why they originally went into politics, and the only Cons under threat in this issue are the PM, and two or three ministers. PMs and ministers come and go, a tarnished brand is forever. The internal desire to obey Parliament is strong. The PMO is opposed. Remember, Bloodworth, DND & DFAIT gave constant briefings. But the idea that the Con caucus would allow itself to be walked over the precipice, again, is unbelievable. This is the one issue over which the Cons' defeat is guaranteed. Not just because it threatens their plurality outright, but because an election fought over it would oblige the Opposition to replace the Cons, even were they, combined, to have a one seat majority at the conclusion. The principles stated at the outset would demand nothing less.

Some might think they was a correlation between reported Con behaviour and the polls. I find that hard to believe, since that is completely amateur. A couple of points up or down make no difference, whatever the supposed margin(s - other parties too). There are core votes, unchanging. And then there are those few swing voters. and they shift with the breeze. And when there is a strong united pro-democracy hurricane of the Opposition, media and all, they are known to suddenly blow away seemingly solid governments. One assumes that even within Giorno's ugly skull such things are understood - indeed, thinking back to the Harrisites' end days, who better/worse?

An election fought on this issue, whatever the supposed states of readiness of the different parties, would mean the end of Conservatives. Anything but a majority would mean their replacement. And the country is against them. Just study the map, the ridings. And then there is the hurricane. Far from a Con majority, the Libs would probably end up with a razor-thin plurality. Maybe more.

So if I am accused of having misjudged the Cons, it is because I find it hard to believe they could be so stupid. Perhaps they are betting on the Opposition's even greater weakness and stupidity behind closed doors. But I find that hard to believe. Even with all my criticism of Iggy, Layton & Duceppe through the years, even I find it hard to believe they could be so utterly stupid, and consequently weak. Surely they have some idea of real politics, and don't let intermittent breezes distract them from underlying realities.

Assuming all are rational actors, then such reports lead me to think these are only negotiating and time-wasting tactics. Since the whole thing is built, like all of democracy, on a minimum of good faith, then the Opposition may decide that the Cons, away from the glares of the Speaker, media and public, having demonstrated that their previous exhibition of good faith was a sham, they have no option but to proceed to declare them intransigent, allow the Speaker to make his ruling, and let things follow their course. The Cons don't want to be the ones who call an election, to escape scrutiny. The narrative would wreck them. So the PMO may hope to cheat behind closed doors and place the onus on the Opposition. But the Opposition can easily put the pressure back on the Govt, with a minimum of sense and strength,  Call them out.

Negotiate up until the last hour, if need be, if judged necessary. But remember, Opposition Majority, as the Cons rightly say, the country, structurally, is on your side.

Not necessarily an election? Yes.

But an election if necessary? A thousand times YES.