Inquiry-Majority-Kill Inquiry= Con Plan?

Given the time, it can be claimed, it takes to set up an inquiry, it would not surprise me if Harper does call one, with as limited a mandate as possible, presided by as "sound" a chap as possible. He's always been a calculated gambler. Given he can load all the odds for the inquiry's outcome in his favour, he could use his inquiry announcement as a defence to block all demands for documents and answers to questions for the longest time (Harper to Johnston to Oliphant: how long?). That would give him scads of time for an election, probably Spring, though who knows, time it takes, could also have one in Fall. The plan would be: inquiry, majority, then pull a "Somalia" and kill the inquiry. The first risk is that he doesn't get a majority and can't shut down the inquiry with impunity. But the inquiry announcement would save Harper & Co. until election, keep story out of election, and even if just wins another minority, having loaded inquiry odds in his favour, could then determine if inquiry is tame enough to be trusted or could still kill it, though with more consequences than in majority. There's always the risk, as has happened more than once, that the fixed inquiry becomes unfixed, the commissioner, now uncontrollable master, goes further and starts to find more than desired - but in worst case scenario, can still kill inquiry. 30+% will vote Con no matter what, and only need a couple more points for plurality, so can live with consequences. And if Cons lose election, Harper's political career is over anyway, and unlikely charges will be filed against him, so free and clear-ish.

However, if this was the path the Cons were going to take, they should've done it much sooner, not just because of the price they're paying for conduct but more importantly by their anti-democratic behaviour they transformed the issue into a constitutional question, voire, crisis. The House has ordered the production of documents forthwith. Until such time as the House countermands its motion, the order is in effect. I don't foresee the Opposition agreeing to annul its previous motion. And whatever chance there was that they might was probably destroyed by the Cons blatant denigration and attempted diminishment of parliament and democracy. So even if the Cons try to escape through by calling an inquiry they intend to kill, the constitutional crisis will grow, and it's not like the leaks and other information will stop in the meantime. One can expect to see Con MPs being found in contempt and barred from HoC. A major complication for Cons is they got in on the back of Gomery Inquiry and all that accountability jazz, and everyone remembers that there were parliamentary committees investigating simultaneously, and with incomparably greater cooperation from the Govt of the day, although much criticised by Cons at time for opacity - compare and contrast Martin with Harper as regards transparency & accountability, eh? So Cons have gotten themselves into a muddle, as they stupidly shut down MPCC, and have now aggravated situation to point that even calling an inquiry won't end the parliamentary investigation, and won't allow them to hide from ongoing revelations. The inquiry would be a better PR move than bizarre knavery & cowardice of defying parliament, hiding from committee and hiding behind soldiers so as to better slander critics: "must wait for inquiry" is usually a winner. Not this time, I don't think, because the Cons have done everything but put up a 100 foot screaming red neon sign above the PMO saying: "We're dictators engaged in a cover-up of complicity in torture". If they could just have avoided choosing authoritarianism and defying parliament.

Now, of course, they could prorogue and HoC discipline would have to wait for short window before Olympics, at best, and the Cons would try to appeal decision to courts, where they'll either lose or not be heard, but there's also that Olympic break, so they'll have bought themselves more than enough time - if they can't get the Opposition to defeat them over a budget filled with poison pills, they may just call the election themselves: "let the people judge us, not the evil coalition".

It is nigh impossible that Harper is going to call an honest inquiry and sit patiently in office while it investigates high and low and turns up all sorts of mud, implicating the very highest officials, having his and his governement's reputation destroyed, talk of criminal charges raised, even government members prosecuted, and then just meekly resign or submit himself to a devastating election: even Mulroney had the good sense to quit before the whirlwind hit in 1993.

As a consequence, a few points:

a) the Opposition has to be ready for call of inquiry, raise the previous points, and reaffirm the importance of democracy by following through on necessary parliamentary track.

b) Opposition has to be ready for an election

c) in the event the Cons are denied a majority, Opposition has to consider how the Cons may be replaced and parliamentary democracy restored. There is an important and obvious note I keep forgetting: if, though each caucus less than Cons on their own, the combined Lib-NDP caucuses were to form a plurality in the House, then, much like Ontario in 1985, their coalition would be a more legitimate government than the Cons. Much like Ontario in 1985, they would be best advised to defeat Cons asap, on Throne Speech (though I don't imagine Harper will show as much grace as Miller), and then present their own government and throne speech. The advantage of this scenario, of course, is that a Lib-NDP plurality would not need the formal support of the Bloc. Indeed, once again, Harper's comments during that last attempt at a coalition, when he said everything was legitimate except for a coalition with Bloc support, would work in favour. The coalition would be a federalist plurality, depending on the support of either the Bloc or Cons for throne speech and budget, though I have a hunch which might be more amenable, in the circumstances. Support for their throne speech and budget shouldn't be too difficult and the rest of the legislative agenda would be fairly easy to manage, until the next budget, a year hence. In the meantime, whether Harper had resigned or been deposed as Con leader, the CPC would be in angry chaos.

The legislative agenda would be well advised as having the restoration of democracy as its cornerstone, as the right thing and to gain support. Among the various propositions, might I reiterate the importance of electoral reform and the fact that the only reform that could ever be acceptable to QC, given its unique position, is preferential voting, which far from penalising the Bloc, as other proposals would, might indeed aid it, a bit, as the insurance policy party in QC, in the short term, 1-2 elections, max. The change in our democratic culture as a result of preferential voting (civilised debate, hence necessarily more policy-focussed, and leading to greater respect for institutions by parties, etc.) would eventually profit smaller parties and increase desire to be part of governing coalitions, pulling folk away from Bloc. But it's fair to say that the Bloc would probably profit slightly in the first preferential election, and that's exactly why it's the only electoral reform with a chance. NDP would have to be willing to put some water in their wine, take the medium to long view, recognise the perfect is the enemy of the good, that any more proportional system is a practical no-go, and decide whether their principles actually mean something: is it more important to stop neo-cons and promote progressive ideals, with chance for NDP to gain down the line, electorally & ideologically, after culture change, or to care more about the actual number of seats the NDP gets in following election, knowing full well they'll never top 18%? Enlightened self-interest would dictate NDP favour preferential voting, especially with aging, increasingly conservative population, who will eventually give Cons a majority under current system, with all that implies. They could agree to abide by results of national referendum on question, seems fair compromise in governing platform with Libs. And NDP would be running in next campaign as government-experienced, remember? So first election hit might well be less than expected, hell, they might even win seats, running on governing record as legitimate government party.

If the Govt had just let the MPCC do its job, the world would be a much better place. But they seem intent on committing suicide in as messy and destructive a way as possible. The Opposition must be tough and smart. It may seem obvious, but they must remain strong in defense of our democracy, parliamentary democracy, parliamentary supremacy. More often than not, doing the right thing is the right thing to do, in all senses.